Journal article

Publication year: 2016

Pages: 83-93

Journal: Social Science Research

Volume number: 55

ISSN: 0049-089X

DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2015.09.003

Publisher: Elsevier

Abstract: 
Existing cross-sectional research considers citizens' preferences for radical right-wing populist (RRP) parties to be centrally driven by their perception that immigrants threaten the well-being of the national ingroup. However, longitudinal evidence for this relationship is largely missing. To remedy this gap in the literature, we developed three competing hypotheses to investigate: (a) whether perceived group threat is temporally prior to RRP party preferences, (b) whether RRP party preferences are temporally prior to perceived group threat, or (c) whether the relation between perceived group threat and RRP party preferences is bidirectional. Based on multiwave panel data from the Netherlands for the years 2008-2013 and from Germany spanning the period 1994-2002, we examined the merits of these hypotheses using autoregressive cross-lagged structural equation models. The results show that perceptions of threatened group interests precipitate rather than follow citizens' preferences for RRP parties. These findings help to clarify our knowledge of the dynamic structure underlying RRP party preferences. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Harvard Citation style: Berning, C. and Schlüter, E. (2016) The dynamics of radical right-wing populist party preferences and perceived group threat: A comparative panel analysis of three competing hypotheses in the Netherlands and Germany, Social Science Research, 55, pp. 83-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2015.09.003

APA Citation style: Berning, C., & Schlüter, E. (2016). The dynamics of radical right-wing populist party preferences and perceived group threat: A comparative panel analysis of three competing hypotheses in the Netherlands and Germany. Social Science Research. 55, 83-93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2015.09.003