Journal article

Publication year: 2023

Journal: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

Volume number: 6

Issue number: 1

ISSN: 2397-3722

Open access status: Gold

DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00519-8

Publisher: Nature Research

Abstract: 
El Nino events represent anomalous episodic warmings, which can peak in the equatorial Central Pacific (CP events) or Eastern Pacific (EP events). The type of an El Nino (CP or EP) has a major influence on its impact and can even lead to either dry or wet conditions in the same areas on the globe. Here we show that the difference of the sea surface temperature anomalies between the equatorial western and central Pacific in December enables an early forecast of the type of an upcoming El Nino (p-value < 10(-3)). Combined with a previously introduced climate network-based approach that allows to forecast the onset of an El Nino event, both the onset and type of an upcoming El Nino can be efficiently forecasted. The lead time is about 1 year and should allow early mitigation measures. In December 2022, the combined approach forecasted the onset of an EP event in 2023.

Harvard Citation style: Ludescher, J., Bunde, A. and Schellnhuber, H. (2023) Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6(1), Article 196. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00519-8

APA Citation style: Ludescher, J., Bunde, A., & Schellnhuber, H. (2023). Forecasting the El Niño type well before the spring predictability barrier. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 6(1), Article 196. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00519-8