Journal article

Publication year: 2021

Journal: Energy Economics

Volume number: 100

ISSN: 0140-9883

eISSN: 1873-6181

DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105352

Publisher: Elsevier

Abstract: 
This article introduces a dynamic forward calibration method for New Quantitative Trade models, particularly a disaggregated Eaton and Kortum model, within a global computable general equilibrium framework. The model is parameterized based on distinct, consistent future development scenarios of the (Northwest) German energy transition with productivity growth and structural change derived through a complex scenario-creation process. The future development scenarios significantly affect European economies, particularly via the EU climate policy costs that significantly increase towards 2050. If (Northwest) Germany's energy transition fails, then its climate policy costs will increase extraordinarily. Structural change, energy efficiency improvements and nearly 100% electricity from renewables drastically reduce the costs.

Harvard Citation style: Pothen, F. and Huebler, M. (2021) A forward calibration method for analyzing energy policy in new quantitative trade models, Energy Economics, 100, Article 105352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105352

APA Citation style: Pothen, F., & Huebler, M. (2021). A forward calibration method for analyzing energy policy in new quantitative trade models. Energy Economics. 100, Article 105352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105352