Journal article
Authors list: Thomas, Axel
Publication year: 2008
Pages: 306-326
Journal: Global and Planetary Change
Volume number: 60
Issue number: 3-4
ISSN: 0921-8181
eISSN: 1872-6364
DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.03.009
Publisher: Elsevier
The anticipated change of climatic conditions within the next decades is thought to have far reaching consequences for agricultural cropping systems. The success of crop production in China, the world's most populous country, will also have effects on the global food supply. More than 30% of the cropping area in China is irrigated producing the major part of the agricultural production. To model the effects of climate change on irrigation requirements for crop production in China a high-resolution (0.25 degrees, monthly time series for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) gridded climate data set that specifically allows for the effects of topography on climate was integrated with digital soil data in a GIS. Observed long-term trends of monthly means as well as trends of interannual variations were combined for climate scenarios for the year 2030 with average conditions as well as 'best case' and 'worst case' scenarios. Regional cropping calendars with allowance for multiple cropping systems and the adaptation of the begin and length of the growing season to climatic variations were incorporated in the FAO water balance model to calculate irrigation amounts to obtain maximum yields for the period 1951-1990 and the climate scenarios. Regional cropping calendars with allowance for multiple cropping systems and the adaptation of the begin and length of the growing season to climatic variations were incorporated in the FAO water balance model to calculate irrigation amounts to obtain maximum yields for the period 1951-1990 and the climate scenarios. During the period 1951-1990 irrigation demand displayed a considerable variation both in temporal and spatial respects. Future scenarios indicate a varied pattern of generally increasing irrigation demand and an enlargement of the subtropical cropping zone rather than a general northward drift of all zones as predicted by GCM models. The effects of interannual variability appear to have likely more impact on future cropping conditions than the anticipated poleward migration of cropping zones. (c) 2007 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.
Abstract:
Citation Styles
Harvard Citation style: Thomas, A. (2008) Agricultural irrigation demand under present and future climate scenarios in China, Global and Planetary Change, 60(3-4), pp. 306-326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.03.009
APA Citation style: Thomas, A. (2008). Agricultural irrigation demand under present and future climate scenarios in China. Global and Planetary Change. 60(3-4), 306-326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.03.009
Keywords
climate data; irrigation demand; POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TRENDS; SOIL-MOISTURE; water balance modeling; WATER-USE EFFICIENCY; YUNNAN PROVINCE