Journalartikel

Jahr der Veröffentlichung: 2005

Zeitschrift: Physical Review Letters

Bandnummer: 95

Heftnummer: 20

ISSN: 0031-9007

eISSN: 1079-7114

DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.95.208501

Verlag: American Physical Society

Abstract: 
We study the statistics of the recurrence times tau between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M in six (one global and five regional) earthquake catalogs. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time tau(0), such that small and large recurrence times tend to cluster in time. This dependence on the past is reflected in both the conditional mean recurrence time and the conditional mean residual time until the next earthquake, which increase monotonically with tau(0). As a consequence, the risk of encountering the next event within a certain time span after the last event depends significantly on the past, an effect that has to be taken into account in any effective earthquake prognosis.

Harvard-Zitierstil: Livina, V., Havlin, S. and Bunde, A. (2005) Memory in the occurrence of earthquakes, Physical Review Letters, 95(20), Article 208501. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.95.208501

APA-Zitierstil: Livina, V., Havlin, S., & Bunde, A. (2005). Memory in the occurrence of earthquakes. Physical Review Letters. 95(20), Article 208501. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.95.208501