Journal article

Publication year: 2005

Pages: 591-595

Journal: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications

Volume number: 348

ISSN: 0378-4371

eISSN: 1873-2119

Open access status: Green

DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2004.08.032

Publisher: Elsevier

Abstract: 
We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M in California. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time tau(0). As a consequence, the conditional mean recurrence time (tau) over cap(tau(0)) between two events increases monotonically with tau(0). For tau(0) well below the average recurrence time (tau) over bar, (tau) over cap(tau(0)) is smaller than (tau) over bar, while for tau(0) > (tau) over bar, (tau) over cap(tau(0)) is greater than (tau) over bar. Also, the mean residual time until the next earthquake does not depend only on the elapsed time, but also strongly on tau(0). The larger tau(0) is, the larger is the mean residual time. The above features should be taken into account in any earthquake prognosis. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Harvard Citation style: Livina, V., Tuzov, S., Havlin, S. and Bunde, A. (2005) Recurrence intervals between earthquakes strongly depend on history, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 348, pp. 591-595. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2004.08.032

APA Citation style: Livina, V., Tuzov, S., Havlin, S., & Bunde, A. (2005). Recurrence intervals between earthquakes strongly depend on history. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. 348, 591-595. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2004.08.032