Journal article

Publication year: 1993

Pages: 287-310

Journal: Climatic Change

Volume number: 24

Issue number: 4

ISSN: 0165-0009

DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091852

Publisher: Springer

Abstract: 
We assess the appropriateness of using regression- and process-based approaches for predicting biogeochemical responses of ecosystems to global change. We applied a regression-based model, the Osnabruck Model (OBM), and a process-based model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to the historical range of temperate forests in North America in a factorial experiment with three levels of temperature (+0-degrees-C, +2-degrees-C, and +5-degrees-C) and two levels Of CO2 (350 ppmv and 700 ppmv) at a spatial resolution of 0.5-degrees latitude by 0.5-degrees longitude. For contemporary climate (+0-degrees-C, 3 50 ppmv), OBM and TEM estimate the total net primary productivity (NPP) for temperate forests in North America to be 2.250 and 2.602 x 10(15) g C . yr-1, respectively. Although the continental predictions for contemporary climate are similar, the responses of NPP to altered changes qualitatively differ; at +0-degrees-C and 700 PPMV CO2, OBM and TEM predict median increases in NPP of 12.5% and 2.5%, respectively. The response of NPP to elevated temperature agrees most between the models in northern areas of moist temperate forest, but disagrees in southern areas and in regions of dry temperate forest. In all regions, the response to CO2 is qualitatively different between the models. These differences occur, in part, because TEM includes known feedbacks between temperature and ecosystem processes that affect N availability, photosynthesis, respiration, and soil moisture. Also, it may not be appropriate to extrapolate regression-based models for climatic conditions that are not now experienced by ecosystems. The results of this study suggest that the process-based approach is able to progress beyond the limitations of the regression-based approach for predicting biogeochemical responses to global change.

Harvard Citation style: MCGUIRE, A., JOYCE, L., KICKLIGHTER, D., MELILLO, J., ESSER, G. and VOROSMARTY, C. (1993) PRODUCTIVITY RESPONSE OF CLIMAX TEMPERATE FORESTS TO ELEVATED-TEMPERATURE AND CARBON-DIOXIDE - A NORTH-AMERICAN COMPARISON BETWEEN 2 GLOBAL-MODELS, Climatic Change, 24(4), pp. 287-310. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091852

APA Citation style: MCGUIRE, A., JOYCE, L., KICKLIGHTER, D., MELILLO, J., ESSER, G., & VOROSMARTY, C. (1993). PRODUCTIVITY RESPONSE OF CLIMAX TEMPERATE FORESTS TO ELEVATED-TEMPERATURE AND CARBON-DIOXIDE - A NORTH-AMERICAN COMPARISON BETWEEN 2 GLOBAL-MODELS. Climatic Change. 24(4), 287-310. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091852