Journal article

Publication year: 2006

Pages: 209-218

Journal: Environmental Modeling and Assessment

Volume number: 11

Issue number: 3

ISSN: 1420-2026

DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-006-9051-9

Publisher: Springer

Abstract: 

We quantified the uncertainty in hydrological response for a set of land use change scenarios by varying plant parameters within realistic uncertainty bounds in a Monte Carlo analysis. The results show that simulated hydrological fluxes significantly change after the introduction of outwintering suckler cow management, despite the presence of a significant amount of output uncertainty due to uncertainty in the plant parameterisation. The key to a proper uncertainty assessment was to consider the uncertainty in the difference between the scenarios instead of the absolute uncertainty of each single scenario. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis showed that changing soil properties in response to land use change does not result in significantly different results in the scenario analysis.

Harvard Citation style: Breuer, L., Huisman, J. and Frede, H. (2006) Monte Carlo assessment of uncertainty in the simulated hydrological response to land use change, Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 11(3), pp. 209-218. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-006-9051-9

APA Citation style: Breuer, L., Huisman, J., & Frede, H. (2006). Monte Carlo assessment of uncertainty in the simulated hydrological response to land use change. Environmental Modeling and Assessment. 11(3), 209-218. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-006-9051-9