Journalartikel

Jahr der Veröffentlichung: 2017

Seiten: 13-30

Zeitschrift: Journal of Hydrology New Zealand

Bandnummer: 56

Heftnummer: 1

Verlag: The New Zealand Hydrological Society

Abstract: 

Drought is a multi-attribute hazard that impacts environment and economy, both during and after the event. Drought can be characterised by its severity (S), duration (D) and frequency (F). Drought severity and duration are commonly defined using measures such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The objectives of this study were to model the joint severity-duration distribution using a non-parametric density estimator and combine this distribution with frequency to derive drought SDF curves. We used a copula to model the joint drought duration-severity distribution and frequency to generate SDF curves for six locations in different climatic regions (three locations in the North Island and three locations in the South Island) of New Zealand. The copula model was fitted to drought duration and severity by means of a bivariate beta kernel-based function. Based on this bivariate-fitted model for duration and severity, drought SDF curves for various recurrence intervals were derived. The observed interdependence structure between severity and duration suggested a bivariate model was appropriate to use for drought analysis. We found that North Island locations experienced more dry spells than the South Island locations. The SDF curves developed for the six locations in the study provide a comprehensive understanding of occurrence and duration of dry conditions, and can be a useful tool for natural resource managers in developing short and long-term drought mitigation strategies for water management and conservation.

Harvard-Zitierstil: Singh, S., Chamorro, A., Srinivasan, M. and Breuer, L. (2017) A copula-based analysis of severity-duration-frequency of droughts in six climatic regions of New Zealand, Journal of Hydrology New Zealand, 56(1), pp. 13-30

APA-Zitierstil: Singh, S., Chamorro, A., Srinivasan, M., & Breuer, L. (2017). A copula-based analysis of severity-duration-frequency of droughts in six climatic regions of New Zealand. Journal of Hydrology New Zealand. 56(1), 13-30.