Conference paper

Appeared in: Uncertainties in the ‘monitoring-conceptualisation-modelling’ sequence of catchment research. Proceedings

Editor list: Pfister, L.; Hoffmann, L.

Publication year: 2007

Pages: 133-139

URL: https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000156273.locale=en

Conference: 11th Conference of the Euromediterranean Network of Experimental and Representative Basins (ERB)

Title of series: IHP-VI Technical Document in Hydrology

Number in series: 81

Abstract: 

This paper presents results of the LUCHEM project (“Assessing the impact of Land Use Changes on Hydrology by Ensemble Modelling”). In the framework of LUCHEM ten different hydrological catchment models are applied to the same data set from the central German Dill basin (693 km²). The models encompass a large range in complexity and input requirements. Calculating simple ensembles such as arithmetic mean or median value of all model results for every time step in simulations, which are comparable or even better than the best model for both, calibration and validation period. Quality measures of the ensembles such as root mean squared deviation, model efficiency and bias outperform the best single model in particular for the validation period. When applied to several projected land use change scenarios, there is broad agreement among the models on the expected hydrological change. An ensemble prediction of the effect of land use change well represents the mean behaviour of all models and eliminates the deviating behaviour of outlying models. Resuming, it can be stated that model ensembles can significantly reduce the predictive uncertainty in hydrological model application.

Harvard Citation style: Bormann, H., Breuer, L., Croke, T., Gräff, T., Hubrechts, L., Huisman, J., et al. (2007) Reduction of predictive uncertainty by ensemble hydrological modelling of discharge and land use change effects, in Pfister, L. and Hoffmann, L. (eds.) Uncertainties in the ‘monitoring-conceptualisation-modelling’ sequence of catchment research. Proceedings. Paris: International Hydrological Programme of UNESCO. pp. 133-139. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000156273.locale=en

APA Citation style: Bormann, H., Breuer, L., Croke, T., Gräff, T., Hubrechts, L., Huisman, J., Kite, G., Lanini, J., Leavesley, G., Lindström, G., Seibert, J., Viney, N., & Willems, P. (2007). Reduction of predictive uncertainty by ensemble hydrological modelling of discharge and land use change effects. In Pfister, L., & Hoffmann, L. (Eds.), Uncertainties in the ‘monitoring-conceptualisation-modelling’ sequence of catchment research. Proceedings. (pp. 133-139). International Hydrological Programme of UNESCO. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000156273.locale=en