Journal article

Publication year: 2010

Pages: 1008-1013

Journal: Journal of Macroeconomics

Volume number: 32

Issue number: 4

Open access status: Green

DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2010.08.002

Publisher: Elsevier

Abstract: 

This paper uncovers the Phillips curve trade-off perceived by US monetary policymakers. For that purpose we use data on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made available for the period 1992-1998. The results point to significant changes in the perceived trade-off over time with the Phillips curve flattening and the implied NAIRU falling towards the second half of the sample. Hence, the results suggest that policymakers were aware of these changes in real-time.

Harvard Citation style: Tillmann, P. (2010) The Fed’s perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts, Journal of Macroeconomics, 32(4), pp. 1008-1013. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2010.08.002

APA Citation style: Tillmann, P. (2010). The Fed’s perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts. Journal of Macroeconomics. 32(4), 1008-1013. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2010.08.002