Journalartikel

Heterogeneous expectations in the foreign exchange market - Evidence from daily DM/US Dollar exchange rates


AutorenlisteAhrens, R; Reitz, S

Jahr der Veröffentlichung2005

Seiten65-82

ZeitschriftJournal of Evolutionary Economics

Bandnummer15

Heftnummer1

ISSN0936-9937

eISSN1432-1386

DOI Linkhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-004-0206-z

VerlagSpringer


Abstract
In this study a regime-switching approach is applied to estimate the chartist and fundamentalist (cIf) exchange rate model originally proposed by Frankel and Froot (1986). The cIf model is tested against alternative regime-switching specifications applying likelihood ratio tests. Nested atheoretical models like the popular segmented trends model suggested by Engel and Hamilton (1990) are rejected in favour of the multi-agent model. Our findings turned out to be relatively robust when assessing the models' sub-sample estimates and out-of-sample performance.



Zitierstile

Harvard-ZitierstilAhrens, R. and Reitz, S. (2005) Heterogeneous expectations in the foreign exchange market - Evidence from daily DM/US Dollar exchange rates, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 15(1), pp. 65-82. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-004-0206-z

APA-ZitierstilAhrens, R., & Reitz, S. (2005). Heterogeneous expectations in the foreign exchange market - Evidence from daily DM/US Dollar exchange rates. Journal of Evolutionary Economics. 15(1), 65-82. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-004-0206-z



Schlagwörter


CHAOSexchange ratesFORECASTMarkov regime-switchingmulti agent modelsPARITY

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