Journal article

Heterogeneous expectations in the foreign exchange market - Evidence from daily DM/US Dollar exchange rates


Authors listAhrens, R; Reitz, S

Publication year2005

Pages65-82

JournalJournal of Evolutionary Economics

Volume number15

Issue number1

ISSN0936-9937

eISSN1432-1386

DOI Linkhttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-004-0206-z

PublisherSpringer


Abstract
In this study a regime-switching approach is applied to estimate the chartist and fundamentalist (cIf) exchange rate model originally proposed by Frankel and Froot (1986). The cIf model is tested against alternative regime-switching specifications applying likelihood ratio tests. Nested atheoretical models like the popular segmented trends model suggested by Engel and Hamilton (1990) are rejected in favour of the multi-agent model. Our findings turned out to be relatively robust when assessing the models' sub-sample estimates and out-of-sample performance.



Citation Styles

Harvard Citation styleAhrens, R. and Reitz, S. (2005) Heterogeneous expectations in the foreign exchange market - Evidence from daily DM/US Dollar exchange rates, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 15(1), pp. 65-82. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-004-0206-z

APA Citation styleAhrens, R., & Reitz, S. (2005). Heterogeneous expectations in the foreign exchange market - Evidence from daily DM/US Dollar exchange rates. Journal of Evolutionary Economics. 15(1), 65-82. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191-004-0206-z



Keywords


CHAOSexchange ratesFORECASTMarkov regime-switchingmulti agent modelsPARITY

Last updated on 2025-02-04 at 04:03